44. At its September 2025 meeting, the Committee considered the case for the Bank to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes by £70 billion from October 2025 to September 2026, of which £21 billion would be through gilt sales.

45. Seven members supported that stock reduction. A decrease in the pace of QT to £70 billion from £100 billion over the previous year, would be consistent with the MPC's key principles and objective. This decision was made with the knowledge that the Bank would choose as part of its operational considerations to vary the maturity composition of sales, as set out in the Market Notice accompanying these Minutes.

46. One member preferred to maintain the pace of QT at £100 billion over the coming year to provide continuity and consistency in the MPC's approach, particularly as gilt market developments had been predominantly unrelated to QT.

47. One member preferred to slow the pace of QT to £62 billion, retaining £13 billion of sales, having been informed that in this case the Bank would maintain equal proportions of sales across maturity buckets, as in previous years. Relative to the majority decision, the slower pace and balanced tenors would reduce the potential for volatility in short rates and would moderate upward pressure on the middle tenor interest rates, which was where monetary policy transmission was the strongest.

Amid two rebellions (Catherine Mann, for £62bn, and Huw Pill for £100bn), the Bank of England's quantitative tightening envelope has been cut.

More importantly from our perspective -- who guessed number good?

The £70bn reading was -- assuming multiples of five were most natural, something Mann clearly didn't agree with -- in line with both the latest MaPS reading and the mean/median average of the estimates we collected.

Four of the analysts we surveyed called this correctly. Congratulations to:

Modupe Adegbembo of Jefferies got close for her estimate of a £70bn to £75bn range, but no cigar.

Whether any of this actually matters is now in the power of the gilt market and the OBR.

QT's at £70bn. Who called it?