ASHEVILLE - At the base of Craggy Gardens on an October morning, the valley below was obscured by rolling cloud cover. The 5,892-foot pinnacle is a popular destination along the Blue Ridge Parkway, about 20 miles north of Asheville.

Winding into the mountains from the city, red, orange and yellow had begun to drape some of the trees along the scenic byway, among the most visited National Park Service units in the country, with more than 16.7 million visitors in 2024.

This section of the 469-mile parkway, which snakes across the Blue Ridge Mountains from Shenandoah National Park in Virginia to the Great Smokes in Cherokee, reopened only in September. It marked a milestone in Tropical Storm Helene recovery, with 90% of the parkway restored since the devastation a year ago.

Howard Neufeld, a professor of plant eco-physiology at Appalachian State University in Boone, who also runs the "Fall Color Guy" Facebook page, said Oct. 8 that areas along the parkway, at 3,000 to 4,000 feet, are nearing their peak.

Neufeld anticipated the best parkway color to come in the third week of October, encouraging visitation the weekends before and after. Though the quality of fall color is largely informed by the weather -- with sunny, but not hot, days and cool nights creating prime conditions -- for those thinking about visiting, there's something he often says about Western North Carolina:

"Even in a bad year, it's still good."

Is fall tourism bouncing back?

The region is known for its vibrant and long-lasting fall foliage season. Home to Mount Mitchell, the highest peak east of the Mississippi River, you can follow the wave of color down the mountains, with high tree diversity also contributing to a colorful and unique season, said Katherine Mathews, a biology professor at Western Carolina University in Cullowhee.

It is one of Asheville's most important times of year for travel and hospitality, according to Vic Isley, president and CEO of Explore Asheville and the Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority.

She said fall foliage and holiday celebrations, like those at the Grove Park Inn and the Biltmore Estate, make the last quarter of the year the "most important season for our creative economy," typically generating 31% of visitor spending in Buncombe County.

In recent years, apart from 2024, October has seen the county's highest lodging sales, topping more than $70 million for the month.

The September 2024 storm hit WNC hard, killing more than 100 people in North Carolina and causing nearly $60 billion in damage. In its immediate aftermath, tourists were warned against visiting.

But for several months, most of the region has been open and ready for tourists to return. Over the summer, Gov. Josh Stein, in partnership with Visit NC, launched "Rediscover the Unforgettable," inviting travelers to return to the mountains and support its businesses and communities.

Following Helene, the TDA estimated a 70% decline in visitor spending in the last quarter of 2024, costing local businesses over $585 million.

Though summer lodging revenues were down around 20%, Isley said they are hearing bookings and rates are rising, "showing strong potential for a healthy October that will help businesses rebound further and build stability for winter."

Despite closing due to Helene, the parkway had an estimated economic output of $1.9 billion in local communities in 2024, according to National Park Service estimates. The parkway itself supported over 15,700 jobs.

'You can still see a lot of the scars'

Chris Baucom, from Raleigh, had come to Craggy to see the sunrise Oct. 9, and stayed to watch the mist roll across the mountains. He was in town for work. Baucom is a documentary filmmaker with the North Carolina Association of County Commissioners. He directed "Rising Above Helene," which followed community resilience after the storm.

It had a screening at the East Asheville Library the night before.

"You can see that a lot of areas have been cleaned up, but you drive through the River Arts District, or you drive through Swannanoa, you can still see a lot of the scars," he said. At the event, some attendees spoke of friends still living in campers or shed homes.

"There is a lot of difficult conversations," Baucom said. One woman he spoke to said she was only now getting to the point where she can talk about the storm without crying.

He was glad to see so much of the parkway back open. The mountains mean more to him than just pretty views: He'd proposed to his wife 10 years before at Craggy's summit -- he had video called her that morning during the sunrise to let her know where he was.

"I'm hoping a lot of people are coming," he said of parkway visitation. "I know that there's a lot of businesses that could use the tourism and the money that comes from it."

What can leaf peepers expect this year?

Color change is triggered by two main variables: shortening days and cooling temperatures. Warmer temperatures through October could delay or mute colors, and, as forecasters often warn, hurricanes and tropical storms can pose some threat to fall foliage.

Neufeld is predicting a relatively "on time" year.

Late September and early October have seen above normal nightime temperatures, he said, which slowed some color change. But the forecast called for cooler weather when he spoke to the Citizen Oct. 8, which he hoped would trigger more.

Helene caused significant damage to area forests. Neufeld anticipated bare patches where trees were blown down, particularly on southeast facing slopes.

In total, aerial surveys indicate that 822,000 acres of WNC timberland received some level of damage from Helene, according to a report from the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management.

"It will recover," Neufeld said. "It will just take time."

For an on-time fall foliage year, when should you visit?

In recent years, Neufeld has noted greater variability in peak color, making fall foliage more difficult to predict.

Mathews, the WCU biology professor, said in her two decades here, she has seen fall come later and later because of climate change, leading to delayed and less synchronous fall foliage.

She anticipated a more prolonged color season, with nice color in places, particularly in higher elevations.

"But overall in the region, I think there's going to be a mix of color change and leaf drop, at a more gradual pace," she said. But there is more to look for than vibrant leaves, she said. Fall brings ripening fruit, like the bright red berries on mountain ash, and blooming wildflowers.

Regardless of exactly how the season shakes out, "it's always going to be really pretty here," she said.

In years deemed "on time," high-elevation sites, such as Graveyard Fields and Craggy Gardens on the Blue Ridge Parkway, with elevations above 5,000 feet -- compared to Asheville's approximately 2,200 feet elevation -- could begin to turn the first week of October, Neufeld said. In the case of cold weather, it could begin by the end of September.

In the 3,000-4,000-foot elevation range on the parkway, the colors could begin to turn from Oct. 10-20.

In the third week, from Oct. 20 to the end of the month, fall colors could begin to peak in Asheville, around the Biltmore Estate and in Hendersonville, at about 2,100 feet elevation.

Weekly fall color reports and an interactive fall color map can be found at https://www.exploreasheville.com/.

Explore Fall also provides a map of fall foliage, showing color intensity and a timeline of peak colors.

Sarah Honosky is the city government reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. News Tips? Email shonosky@citizentimes.com or message on Twitter at @slhonosky.

Fall foliage forecaster predicts peak for leaf peeping season in Western North Carolina