Lane Kiffin, Brett Venables and many other coaches could be in new positions after this season depending on how the SEC jobs play out. Brian Bahr / Getty Images

Kirby Smart was a young assistant coach at LSU in 2004 when someone offered some advice: That office you're working in? It's not your office. You're just borrowing it.

"I knew right then if you didn't win, you wouldn't be there long," Smart said Monday.

Brian Kelly was the latest to find out, fired by LSU on Sunday in a stunning twist, the newest development in what's becoming a wild coaching cycle in the SEC.

There were zero head coaching changes in the SEC last year. This year, there have been three before October is even over. And before the cycle ends, that number could climb higher, not just because of firings, but also because of the domino effect they set off.

Smart, in fact, is one of the few coaches who hasn't had to deal with some question about his future, one way or the other. It's a different day, as Smart pointed out.

"There's so much built around the Playoffs. Everything's boom or bust," Smart said. "You can't have a normal season, people make decisions earlier based on how somebody does."

Indeed, expansion of the College Football Playoff has provided hope, including in the SEC, where half the conference -- eight teams -- have two losses or fewer. But with hope comes anger when hope isn't realized.

Arkansas was first, pulling the plug on Sam Pittman after his third loss. Then in the past week came two big ones: Florida and LSU, two programs big enough to create more openings.

But could they also end up saving other coaches' jobs?

Here's a breakdown of what people in the conference and the industry are watching to still happen:

Auburn has gone from close to a fait accompli to more up in the air. Hugh Freeze staved off the wolves for a week by winning at Arkansas last Saturday, and with Kentucky and Mercer remaining, he should at least reach bowl eligibility. Is that good enough to earn a fourth year?

But perhaps the more important X-factor: How good does Auburn feel going into the coaching market this cycle, especially competing against LSU and Florida?

Kentucky is even further down in the pecking order, and Mark Stoops has a foreboding buyout: $38 million due within 30 days of any firing.

Then again, both schools have to weigh whether it would be more costly not to make changes: Even with all that guaranteed television money from the SEC contract, schools depend on donations and season tickets, and if those are going to dry out, buying out a coach and his staff is the better move.

An industry source put it this way: Schools definitely have to gauge the quality of the potential replacement. But the most important factor is how they feel about the direction of the program under the current coach.

Ole Miss' Lane Kiffin and Missouri's Eli Drinkwitz are going to get paid this offseason. The question is whether it's by their current schools or someone else. Florida and LSU loom as schools that could poach either or both. Outside the conference, there's also Penn State, which has already caused another SEC coach to try to knock down interest.

Texas A&M's Mike Elko was asked about the Penn State job on his radio show last week. He laughed it off, telling the host to "ask the boss lady" behind him. His wife, Michelle, was heard saying, "We're not going anywhere."

Texas' Steve Sarkisian was in a less humorous mood when asked after last Saturday's game about a report in The Athletic that his representatives had let NFL teams know he would be interested in jobs. Sarkisian didn't outright say he wasn't leaving, but he also didn't leave the impression he was seriously thinking about it.

There's also Vanderbilt's Clark Lea, who would normally be a very hot name given where he has the once-moribund Commodores. But Lea is a Vanderbilt graduate and Nashville native, which doesn't rule out leaving, but makes it much less likely.

South Carolina's Shane Beamer is enduring a disappointing fifth season, 3-5 after expecting to contend for the playoffs. Beamer's job security doesn't seem to be the issue; it's more that the job at his alma mater, Virginia Tech, is open. Beamer has been clear that he'd like to carve his own identity rather than be where his father became a legend. On the other hand, going back to Blacksburg would be a chance to reset his clock, rather than entering 2026 on the hot seat in Columbia.

Oklahoma's Brent Venables entered the season on the hot seat, and that's quieted after a 6-2 start. But with three more ranked opponents remaining, plus LSU, Venables isn't completely safe yet.

Mississippi State's Jeff Lebby is only in his second year and got off to a 4-0 start this season, including a win over Arizona State. But he's since dropped four straight games, bringing his conference record to 0-12. The Bulldogs are competitive -- taking Tennessee and Texas to overtime -- but the last coach with this bad a start was Chad Morris, who was 0-14 in SEC play when Arkansas canned him near the end of his second season.

When no SEC coaches were fired last season, the main theory was schools were worried about having to pay revenue sharing, $20.5 million by each school to their athletes starting this school year. Apparently, the worries are behind them, even though the number will go up by a few million next year. (It's 22 percent of revenues per the House settlement.)

Still, money could be a factor, especially at Kentucky. (Freeze's buyout is much less.) The emerging bigger factor: The coaching pool.

Kiffin and Drinkwitz aside, there are several hot coaches outside the conference with ties to the region: SMU's Rhett Lashlee (a former Arkansas QB and former Auburn offensive coordinator); Tulane's Jon Sumrall (a former Kentucky player and assistant), South Florida's Alex Golesh, and Memphis' Ryan Silverfield (a Jacksonville, Fla., native). All of them are in their 40s, with Silverfield the oldest at 45.

There is no shortage of other potential candidates, from assistants to sitting head coaches. The number of openings surely has coaches and their agents burning up phone lines. But that doesn't mean everyone lands somewhere, or that every SEC team gets their first, second or third choice.

There seem to be three scenarios:

* All hell breaks loose: Auburn and Kentucky open up, Kiffin and Drinkwitz take other jobs, Beamer goes back to Virginia Tech and voila, half the conference has a new coach in 2026. And that doesn't rule out some additional move.

* Calm breaks out: Auburn and Kentucky don't open, Kiffin and Drinkwitz get raises at their schools, Beamer stays. Even Arkansas stands still, giving interim coach Bobby Petrino the full-time job.

* Something in between: It's a cop-out, but this is the most likely scenario. Either Auburn or Kentucky opens, but not both. Florida and/or LSU hire either Kiffin or Drinkwitz, but the other stays. In the end, there are five, maybe six coaching changes, which at the beginning of this season would still have seemed a lot, but given what's happened would seem a letdown. (If you want all this movement, that is.)

Still, it's a measure of what's happened that if you had to bet on one of the first two options, all hell breaking loose seems the better bet.

The SEC domino effect: How wild is the coaching carousel about to get?