In the run-up to the 2024 election, the Daily Mail conducted focus groups with uncommitted voters in critical counties in two swing states: Erie County in the northwest corner of Pennsylvania and Cobb County encompassing the suburbs outside of Atlanta, Georgia.

The Rust Belt and the Sun Belt. One region evokes visions of America's manufacturing past and a struggle to build a new future, the other is the future - an expanding ethnically and economically diverse South.

The data and insights obtained from these demographically, politically and geographically disparate groups helped Daily Mail and JL Partners produce the most accurate pre-election projection of any polling operation.

Now, nearly a year and half later and eight months from midterms that will determine the balance of power in Congress and the course of President Donald Trump's remaining time in office, the Daily Mail went back to ask how their opinions had changed.

What we discovered was remarkable on one hand and entirely predictable on the other.

Despite one of the most tumultuous periods in US history - from tariff wars to bombing raids, National Guard deployments to mass deportations, regime overthrows to government shutdowns - the loyalties of these one-time swing voters have not budged since November 2024. In fact, their positions have hardened.

What has changed is the intensity of their feelings - and that may make all the difference.

Michael, a white 52-year-old and Pennsylvania delivery truck driver, voted for Barack Obama twice, then Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.

The last time we met he was thinking of voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, but his mind was far from made up. Michael was bothered by Democrats' handling of the war in Ukraine and was worried about Harris' ability to handle the job. Despite it all, he ended up voting for the Democratic candidate in 2024, but without much enthusiasm.

Michael, a white 52-year-old and Pennsylvania delivery truck driver, voted for Barack Obama twice, then Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020

Daily Mail first interviewed these Cobb County residents in the run-up to the 2024 election

Now, Michael is surer than ever that he'll vote blue. He is also more engaged and angrier than ever, he says.

'We are headed towards disaster,' he warned of the country. 'Everything is being done for one person or a select few. It's just more insanity and I can't believe we let this happen.'

His concerns range from foreign policy ('I can't remember any time in my life someone deciding that we need to occupy Greenland') to immigration ('to say that everyone that's coming across the border is a criminal and a drug dealer and a rapist is not true') to what he sees as a lack of credentials among Trump's top team ('they aren't qualified to run a juice stand at the mall').

When asked to give Trump a school-style grade, he gave a D. 'The only reason I'm not giving an F is because he hasn't managed to nuke anybody yet,' he said.

In 2024, Trump elicited more of a shrug than fury from Michael. Now, he believes he has a duty to vote as 'every vote helps to turn the tide.'

But, even as Democrat-leaning voters have become more certain of their choice, Trump supporters are not abandoning their man. In fact, every person who pulled the lever for Trump in 2024 said they would vote Republican in November.

The main drivers of these positive perceptions are the current state of the economy and fiscal management, including perceived increased local construction and reduced government spending and debt.

Ricardo, a black 37-year-old marketing professional in Georgia who voted for Trump in 2024, said he liked 'the way Trump seems to be reducing debt through tariffs, standing up for Christians here and abroad... and peace through strength.'

He also sees people in his community 'thriving' and likes what Trump is doing on 'deportations.'

In a warning to Republicans, Bryanna, a black 31-year-old and software engineer from Georgia, is sticking with the GOP, but she thinks the economy is the same as it was in 2024, and while she supports Trump's deportation policy, she has reservations with how it is being implemented.

'The mass deportations... people who are actually citizens are being deported, I don't agree with that,' she said.

Ricardo is a black 37-year-old marketing professional in Georgia who voted for Trump in 2024

Bryanna is a college-educated software engineer. She voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024

Vacant factories dot its shoreline along Lake Erie in Erie County in the northwest corner of Pennsylvania

Personal security was another factor resonating with Republican-leaning voters.

In the words of Jarron - 39, a Georgia resident heading back to college to study computer and data engineering - he feels 'protected and safe.' Republican voters also like the decisive stances that Trump takes and view him as 'assured,' 'fierce' and 'ferocious' in doing what he said he would.

But fulfilling campaign promises cut the other way for Erie resident Tina, a 44-year-old former bartender who backed Harris.

She told me in 2024 that the country needed someone who can 'get stuff done' on the southern border. But despite Trump's successful efforts to end the illegal immigration crisis, she has turned on the President over this very issue. 'I'm embarrassed by it and I'm scared,' she told me. 'I think that it's immoral the way that ICE is treating people and there's no economic benefit worth what the damage to our reputation has been.'

She now believes the administration 'is threatening democracy as we know it.' Previous conspiracy theories she threw at the Biden administration when we last spoke in 2024 were now employed against the Republicans: 'I think all the chaos is intentional and they're just using it as a distraction from whatever is really going on,' she said.

The up sum for her? She feels she has 'a responsibility to vote' blue in November.

When Democrat-voting Michael said that Trump had not delivered his promises, it prompted one of the only instances of non-partisanship.

Panelists across the political divide sprang to the President's defense - on border security, cutting government spending, deportations and bringing gas prices down.

Gordon, a 54-year-old ex-steelworker who plans to vote Democrat in 2026, said: 'He closed the borders. He's done the immigration thing that he said getting illegal immigrants out. Not that I agree with the way he's done it or any of the facts of it. I'm just saying point of fact he's done it.'

Economically, Gordon also sees benefits: 'Looking at [the country] from a business standpoint, I'd be lying if I said [Trump] wasn't making some advancements for us.'

Of course, most left-leaning voters disagreed with that.

For Pennsylvania's Conrad, 32, the day to day has gotten harder in the last two years. Affordability is the main issue for him and his wife. He has ping-ponged between insurance underwriting and work as a nurse and talked about 'opportunity and the future' being his biggest concern. He pointed out that food prices are high, lamented a lack of career flexibility and stability and worried about having kids in the current environment.

Bryanna agreed. 'The gas prices are stabilized but now it seems like the price of groceries have increased,' she said.

This is not to say that Democrats have it easy. Asked to describe the Democrats in a word, our voters reeled off negatives: 'defeated', 'divisive', 'lost', 'gutless', 'not aggressive', 'unprepared', 'visionless'.

Jarron, 39, a Georgia resident heading back to college to study computer and data engineering said he feels 'protected and safe'

For Conrad, 32, the day to day has gotten harder in the last two years. Affordability is the main issue for him and his wife

Gordon also sees benefits: 'Looking at [the country] from a business standpoint, I'd be lying if I said [Trump] wasn't making some advancements for us'

These voters are casting a ballot against Trump, not for the Democratic party which they see as weak and ineffective. And there is no liberal hero riding to the rescue. The one Democrat figure that they seem to agree has stood up to Trump is California Governor Gavin Newsom, but he is not on the ballot.

Neither is Trump, of course.

There appears to be a window for Trump to rally his base and swing voters if noticeable economic gains are made, but that window is closing by the day.

Today, the energy is with these Democrat-leaners. The apathetic voters I met two years ago now have a glint in their eye. They are spying November as a chance to vote against Trump and place limitations on what they see as outrageous violations of American values.

In many ways, this is the classic midterm dynamic - when an outraged opposition party punishes the incumbent. The swing voters of Pennsylvania and Georgia may not have changed their minds. But their energy levels have shifted dramatically. That may end up being the story of November.

Analyst JAMES JOHNSON speaks to 2024's most important voters