The Trump administration is recurrently cutting basic research funding and disrupting the U.S. science and technology (S&T) system as never before. More than 1,000 grants were terminated between January 20 and March 2025 at three government agencies. The National Cancer Institute funding is down by 31%; the National Institutes of Health (NIH) by 21%; the National Science Foundation by 9%; and even NASA was not spared. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law on July 4, calls for a 56% cut to the current $9 billion NSF budget and a 73% reduction in staff and fellowships. The Environmental Protection Agency is being pruned drastically. Across the S&T system, about 4,000 research grants have been cancelled, according to Nature (June 25, 2025).

The mRNA vaccine programme, which won a Nobel Prize in 2023, faces a $500 million cut along with 22 more vaccine projects. USAID faces shutdown, eliminating programmes for HIV, TB, and malaria in Africa, while funding for the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization has been withdrawn. These actions threaten fundamental research and weaken the pipeline of cutting-edge innovation. The U.S., once the leading magnet for global talent, is experiencing brain drain.

Brain drain

An anthropologist studying the impact of floods and cyclones on public health in Madagascar is leaving Johns Hopkins for Oxford after her fellowship was withdrawn. Another senior researcher at Ohio State University abandoned a clinical trial after NIH terminated funding (The Guardian, July 20, 2025). The National Association of Foreign Student Advisors reported in August a massive decline in international students -- 1,50,000 fewer this fall. This represents a $7 billion revenue loss and 60,000 jobs (Forbes, August 3, 2025). Since 2018, the 'China Initiative' has pushed thousands of Chinese scientists to return home to leading universities and institutes. European scientists are also leaving Ivy League universities (Nature, May 13, 2025).

In contrast, China has steadily increased science, technology, and innovation (STI) investments over the past two decades, making strategic, long-term commitments to frontier research. China's research output -- both in quantity and quality -- has surged across biosciences, chemistry, physical sciences, earth and environmental sciences, and health sciences, while Western institutions slid down in the Nature Index Research Leaders Rankings ending December 31, 2024. Of the top 10 universities globally, eight are Chinese. The highest ranking was led by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, ranked above Harvard University. The only European institution is the Max Planck Society in Germany (Nature, July 24, 2025).

Since the mid-1990s, higher education policies such as Project 211, Project 985, and the C9 League have enhanced research intensity and teaching quality. By 2015, China had about a dozen world-class universities, many of which now compete with top Western institutions. "China's contribution to world-class science is advancing so quickly that its lead over the U.S. in the Nature Index database has multiplied more than fourfold in just one year, based on 2024 data," said an article in Nature. Data from Clarivate Analytics also show that between 2018 and 2020, China produced 27.2% of the world's top 1% most-cited papers, compared to the U.S.'s 24.9% (The Guardian, August 11, 2022).

China's further rise

Most scientometric analyses predict China will surge further ahead in the coming years. One area of clear leadership is AI. Stanford University's AI Index Report 2023 found that China accounted for nearly 40% of all AI publications in 2021, far exceeding Europe and the U.K. (15%) and the U.S. (10%). Chinese papers also represented 29% of global AI citations in 2021, ahead of Europe and the U.K. (21.5%) and the U.S. (15%) (Nature, August 10, 2023).

In terms of gross domestic expenditure on R&D, in 2023, the U.S. spent $823.4 billion, compared to China's $780.7 billion. However, China's R&D spending is growing at 8.7% annually -- far faster than the U.S. (1.7%), the EU (1.6%), Germany (0.8%), and France (-0.5%), according to OECD data. While the administration systematically cuts budgets across U.S. universities, research institutions, and the NSF, Chinese leadership has launched sweeping STI programmes to reinforce its R&D base in frontier sciences. As the Made in China 2025 programme concludes, the Medium- and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Science and Technology (2021-2035) and the Science and Technology Innovation Mega Program (2030) target strategic fields such as quantum research, AI, and semiconductors, aiming to secure China's position as a global science and technology powerhouse.

China is also poised to expand the share of basic research within its GERD. Current levels of about 7% are expected to rise towards the U.S. benchmark of 20% in the next few years. If present trends continue, China is likely within 2-3 years to surpass the U.S. not only as the world's largest R&D spender but also as its leading science and technology nation.

For decades after World War II, the U.S. was the global leader in science and innovation, home to world-class universities and pioneering breakthroughs. Today, however, the rapid erosion of public investment in R&D and higher education threatens that position. If the current trajectory holds, China's rise -- driven by consistent, large-scale funding and coordinated policy -- may outpace the U.S., reshaping the global innovation landscape and the geopolitical balance of the 21st century.

The race for global leadership in science