MANILA, Philippines - The weather bureau on Monday, October 13, began monitoring a low pressure area (LPA) that formed outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

The LPA was located 2,115 kilometers east of southern Mindanao as of 3 pm on Monday.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the LPA has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression within 24 hours. Beyond 24 hours, however, the likelihood is high, and it could become a tropical depression by Wednesday, October 15, at the latest.

PAGASA Weather Specialist John Manalo said the potential tropical cyclone may enter PAR on Thursday, October 16, or Friday, October 17. It would be given the local name Ramil.

Manalo added that there are two initial scenarios for the potential tropical cyclone:

The LPA may also eventually reach severe tropical storm category. For this category, Signal No. 3 is the highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal.

The effects of the potential Ramil might be felt starting Saturday, October 18, according to Manalo.

PAGASA advised the public to keep monitoring updates as the forecast can still change.

For now, the easterlies or warm winds from the Pacific Ocean are affecting Luzon and Eastern Visayas.

Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, and Camarines Norte are likely to have scattered rain and thunderstorms on Monday evening, while the rest of Luzon and Eastern Visayas are seeing isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

The rest of the Visayas and Mindanao, which are not affected by the easterlies, have generally fair weather with just localized thunderstorms.

The Philippines is transitioning to the northeast monsoon or amihan season after the recent termination of the southwest monsoon or habagat season.

La Niña is also underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which means the country may have above-normal rainfall in the coming months. - Rappler.com

LPA outside PAR might become tropical cyclone Ramil in a few days