After a clear Sunday night, we'll see some patchy frost early Monday, then sunny skies. I don't think we're going to see many clouds, but it's going to be chilly with temperatures of 50 to 55 and light winds. We do it all over again Monday night with patchy frost and a few clouds, but with temperatures falling into the 30s.

On Tuesday, it will be partly sunny, but as high pressure up in Canada starts to move east, the return flow around that high will produce a northeasterly flow. This will pull some moisture in off the ocean, and there could be a couple of showers in the afternoon or evening as the clouds tend to thicken. The cloudiest weather will be along the coastline, with most of the sunshine west of I-495.

Wednesday also features a blend of clouds and sun with temperatures right around 50 degrees, a little bit below average for this time of year, and there's a slight chance of a shower.

Then things get interesting later Wednesday night and especially Thursday into Thursday night. It looks like low pressure is going to develop across New York state with a trailing front moving through New England. This looked like a potential nor'easter a couple of days ago, but now it looks like this system is actually going to be too far inland to be considered a coastal storm.

Nevertheless, there may be a connection with Hurricane Melissa, which will be heading northeast of Bermuda at the same time.

It's not that we will be directly impacted by Melissa, because we will not. But as that system over New York State moves northward, the upper-level flow could actually capture a little bit of tropical moisture and pull it northwestward into Boston and Southern New England.

So what would be the impact if this did happen? We're going to see showers late Thursday into Thursday night. If the tropical connection occurs, then those showers become much heavier, and we could see 1 to 2 inches of rain as opposed to a half an inch or an inch of rain. So the tropical connection can actually double the rainfall.

It looks to me right now like the system is moving quickly enough that most of the heavy rain will be over by Friday morning. That means I'm cautiously optimistic we will be rain-free for Halloween. But remember, it's only the beginning of the work week, and the weather is known to change this far out, so stay tuned.

Greater Boston: Look for sunshine on Monday with temperatures in the lower 50s, along with light winds. Tuesday features a blend of clouds and sun, and there might be some coastal drizzle late in the day highs in the low 50s.

Central/Western Mass.: Look for mostly sunny skies both Monday and Tuesday, although there could be some clouds later Tuesday. Temperatures will be within a degree or two of 50 in the afternoon and starting in the 30-degree range.

Southeastern Mass.: It's a sunny Monday with temperatures in the low 50s. Clouds roll in for Tuesday with a couple of afternoon showers and possible highs in the low to mid-50s.

Cape and Islands: Look for mostly sunny Monday with temperatures 50 to 55 in the afternoon. Tuesday features clouds and highs in the mid-50s. It'll be a little breezy with a couple of showers.

Rhode Island: Look for sunny skies on Monday with temperatures in the low 50s. It will start in the 30s on Tuesday with sunshine giving way to clouds and a late-day shower.

New Hampshire: The temperatures will be in the low 50s Monday afternoon, after starting in the lower 30s. Plenty of sunshine and a similar pattern is on tap for Tuesday with temperatures in the mid-50s and a few afternoon clouds.

Sunny and cool on Monday as a storm tracks inland, setting up a possibly wet Thursday - The Boston Globe