There were 67 goals scored across a thrilling Matchday 1 of the 2025-26 Champions League.

Most of the big-hitters began with wins, some doing so in hostile territory and difficult circumstances. There were a few surprises along the way too, adding to the intrigue of this second season in the competition's expanded 36-team format.

Throughout the tournament, The Athletic will use its projections -- powered by Opta data -- to understand each club's probability of league-phase elimination, direct qualification to the last 16 via a top-eight finish, entry into the play-off round by placing ninth to 24th and of winning the whole thing at the final in Budapest, Hungary on May 30.

Despite being just one week into the eight-round league phase, our projections have already seen plenty of movement. The link to them is below.

Here, we break down the key risers, fallers and more from Matchday 1.

Juventus' stunning comeback to draw 4-4 with visitors Borussia Dortmund was the pick of the games. A fixture that was goalless for the first 51 minutes sprang to life in true "under the lights on a Tuesday night" fashion.

The result in Turin did not move the needle too much in terms of our projections for either team. Dortmund are still projected to pick up 12 points and have a 63 per cent chance of making the play-off round, the same as Juventus, who our calculations have finishing with 11 points.

Real Madrid are the only truly tough team among Juventus' remaining seven opponents, while Dortmund must still play Manchester City and Inter.

Despite wins for champions Paris Saint-Germain, Inter, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Arsenal and Barcelona, Liverpool lead the pack with a 20 per cent chance of being crowned champions of Europe for the seventh time.

Arne Slot's side scored twice in the opening six minutes against Atletico Madrid but, typical of their start to the season, needed a stoppage-time goal from Virgil van Dijk (celebrating in the top image) to take all three points at Anfield. That improved their chances of qualifying directly for the round of 16 from 77 per cent to 84.

They trail only Arsenal, who beat Athletic Club 2-0 in Bilbao, on that front -- Mikel Arteta's side now have an 86 per cent chance of reaching the last 16 without having to go through February's play-offs. This is largely due to the fact the north London club face, according to Opta's fixture difficulty rankings, the third-easiest set of league-phase fixtures (Liverpool's schedule ranks seventh). Arsenal currently have the second-highest chance of winning the competition at 17 per cent.

Barcelona are the only other team, alongside Liverpool and Arsenal, to have a less-than-one-per-cent chance of league-phase elimination after an impressive 2-1 away win against Newcastle United thanks to Marcus Rashford's double. The manner in which Pedri and Frenkie de Jong dealt with Newcastle's physical, ground-consuming midfield was also a joy to behold.

Barcelona's projected points tally has improved to 17 (from an initial 15), while their chances of directly reaching the round of 16 have increased to 71 per cent (from 56).

The Catalans' next match will have a major impact on our projections as they host PSG, back at their temporary Montjuic home. Luis Enrique's team dispatched Atalanta 4-0 with four different players scoring the goals, improving their chances of retaining the title to 12 per cent (from 11). They still have a two per cent chance of a league-phase exit due to having the second-hardest fixture list per Opta, with matches against Bayern Munich and Tottenham Hotspur to come after that trip to Barcelona on October 1.

Bayern, who have the hardest fixtures of all, were dominant in a 3-1 home win against Club World Cup champions Chelsea, courtesy of a Harry Kane brace and some self-enforced errors by the west London club. Though the Germans look a much more complete team now than last season, they have to play both Arsenal and PSG away, as well as a couple of potentially tricky games against Belgian pair Club Brugge and Union Saint-Gilloise. Bayern's chances of league-phase elimination have fallen substantially, from 11 per cent to three, and beating Chelsea also boosted their odds of a top-eight finish to 50 per cent from 35.

City saw Napoli off 2-0, with Kevin De Bruyne's swift return to the Etihad Stadium following his summer transfer cut short after 26 minutes as he was substituted following team-mate Giovanni Di Lorenzo's dismissal. The win reduced City's odds of finishing outside the top 24 to one per cent, while they have a 70 per cent chance of directly qualifying for the round of 16 in March. Barring a visit to Real Madrid in early December, Pep Guardiola's side do not have a particularly tricky set of league-phase fixtures left.

Speaking of Madrid, they huffed and puffed to a 2-1 home win against Marseille to overcome losing Trent Alexander-Arnold to injury and Dani Carvajal to a red card either side of Timothy Weah's 22nd-minute goal for the visitors.

While not the most convincing victory, it means Madrid's chances of league-phase elimination fell from six per cent to two, while their top-eight-finish probability rose from 48 per cent to 57. A 4,000-mile (over 6,000km) journey to play Kairat in Almaty, Kazakhstan, is next for them, before facing Juventus, Liverpool and City all before Christmas. Phew.

Inter's 2-0 win against Ajax in Amsterdam went under the radar slightly, but the Italian side will once again be expected to go a long way in the competition. Champions League runners-up in two of the past three seasons, they have a three per cent chance of lifting the trophy this time and a 42 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight of the league phase. Inter host Liverpool and Arsenal and go to Atletico Madrid, but will be the favourites in their other four matches.

Union Saint-Gilloise have increased their chances of qualification due to a surprise 3-1 win at PSV, courtesy of goals from rising stars Promise David and Anouar Ait El Hadj and centre-back Kevin Mac Allister (brother of Liverpool's Alexis).

Having begun the projections in 24th spot, the Belgian champions have soared to 13th with a 62 per cent chance of making the play-off round and 24 per cent odds of a top-eight finish. Newcastle, Inter and Atletico are USG's next three opponents, so this may be short-lived, but for now, optimism in Brussels is through the roof.

PSV's defeat at home, combined with Ajax never really threatening visitors Inter, poses some early questions for the competition's Dutch contingent. Ajax were already ranked 32nd in our projections and are now down to second-last with a 71 per cent chance of league-phase elimination. This despite the fact John Heitinga's side have the sixth-easiest schedule overall.

Eredivisie champions PSV have dropped from 22nd to 32nd, with their projected points falling from 10 to seven. They have the same odds as Ajax of finishing outside the top 24 in January and face the third-hardest schedule with visits to Anfield and St James' Park, as well as home matches against Napoli, Atletico and Bayern. Yikes.

Alongside USG, Qarabag enjoyed an unexpectedly positive start in what is just the second time in the Champions League proper in club history. The side from Baku in Azerbaijan beat Benfica 3-2 away, courtesy of 25-year-old winger Oleksiy Kashchuk's 86th-minute winner after the hosts had gone two up in 16 minutes.

Qarabag ranked 35th out of 36 in our initial projections, having come through three rounds of qualifying to reach the league phase, and were estimated to pick up just six points, with elimination considered an overwhelming possibility (87 per cent). Wednesday's result has added three points to their projected total and moved them up to 29th with a 41 per cent chance of making the play-offs and a two per cent probability of finishing in the top eight. They have the 12th-hardest schedule, with matches against Chelsea, Liverpool and Napoli to come, the latter two away, but this is the time to dream.

Benfica, meanwhile, could not have gotten off to a worse start, dropping from 13th to 23rd in our rankings following Tuesday night's defeat in Lisbon. Their projected points tally has fallen from 12 to nine.

The result led to Bruno Lage's sacking and Jose Mourinho's return to the club where he began his managerial career 25 years ago. Benfica's list of remaining fixtures looks tricky, with Mourinho set to face two of his former employers in Chelsea (their next game) and Madrid, along with trips to Newcastle and Juventus and a home match against Napoli.

The "us against them" mentality Mourinho brings with him could yet have another say in Europe, so don't count them out just yet. Benfica have a virtually equal probability of finishing within the top 24 (48 per cent) and outside it (47).

Chelsea began the tournament with a seven per cent chance of winning it, but that has now dropped to five following defeat in Munich. Their odds of a top-eight finish fell from 51 to 37 per cent. Though it may not be time to panic just yet: last season's UEFA Conference League winners have the fifth-easiest schedule, with matches against Ajax, Pafos of Cyprus and Qarabag, though the visit of Barcelona and a finale at Napoli will pose challenges.

Their fellow English sides Newcastle and Tottenham, the latter beat Villarreal 1-0 at home, are in a similar boat. Both have a greater chance of needing the play-offs to get to the round of 16 than of finishing in the top eight and neither of them are considered likely tournament winners. But don't let that fool you: these two can cause plenty of difficulties, as Barcelona found in the opening 30 minutes against Eddie Howe's side.

Spurs have the fourth-easiest schedule, with PSG away in late November their toughest remaining fixture. Games against Bodo/Glimt, Copenhagen and Slavia Prague will provide opportunities to rack up points. It will not be as straightforward on paper for Newcastle, who have the fifth-toughest schedule. Before a final-game visit to Paris in January, they face Benfica, Athletic Club, Marseille and Bayer Leverkusen.

Atletico, who struggled early in the league phase last season too, losing two of their first three matches, have it all to do after being handed a very tough fixture list. Games against Inter and Arsenal, the latter away, will need them to both play superbly and have their full squad fit, with neither being the case for that opening defeat at Liverpool. Diego Simeone and company now have just a 10 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, but do have a less than one-third probability of league-phase elimination (31 per cent).

Napoli shot themselves in the foot early on Thursday night against City at the Etihad but can take some solace from getting their toughest league-phase fixture out of the way early.

The Italian champions' projected final points tally is 12, while they still have a 17 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight. Their next two games are home against Lisbon's Sporting CP (who beat Kairat 4-1 on Thursday) and at PSV. Antonio Conte's side don't play what looks the second-toughest tie of their opening eight -- a visit from his former employers Chelsea -- until the final matchday in late January.

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