It's time to fire up the panic meter. For 10 NFL fan bases, their teams are now 0-2, and their odds of making the playoffs have significantly diminished since the start of the season. So, is it time to panic?

For some of these teams -- we're looking at you Browns, Saints and Panthers -- while a slow start wasn't welcomed, it was certainly expected, so there's probably not much reason for fans to panic. But for supporters of the Chiefs and Texans, well, it's fair to say your teams are in a spot of trouble.

If you've been a football fan long enough, you've surely heard a statistic or two about a 0-2 start being a death sentence to playoff hopes. While historically, that tends to be true -- since 1990, just 12.2% of teams have made the playoffs after dropping their first two games -- you don't have to look too far back to know some teams defy the odds. Just last year, the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams went 0-2 out of the gates, and they both ended up winning their divisions.

So, can the Chiefs and Texans still bounce back this year? Of course! How likely is it? That's what my NFL Projection Model is going to tell us. We're going to take a closer look at five winless teams and give you some insight into whether their fans should hold out hope for the playoffs or if they should turn their attention to the 2026 NFL Draft.

As you can see, the model still believes in the back-to-back-to-back AFC champions. Their 60.1% playoff odds rank sixth in the conference, which puts them squarely in the wild-card hunt.

However, while it's easy to hop on the Patrick Mahomes bandwagon and believe he'll turn things around, there is some cause for concern for the kings of the AFC.

First, they're extraordinarily thin (again) at wide receiver. Rashee Rice is in the middle of serving a suspension that won't see him return until after Week 6, while Xavier Worthy has been out since early in their Week 1 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers with a shoulder injury. There is no telling when Worthy will return and how he'll hold up once he's back. And with their top receivers out, aging star Travis Kelce just hasn't quite been able to carry the load like he did in this offense's glory days. Frankly, it's unfair to ask him, at almost 36 years old, to be more than a complementary piece to this offense, but that's the state of the Chiefs' pass-catching group right now.

Where we're seeing the lack of talent around Mahomes materialize is in his scramble rate. Mahomes is scrambling on more than 15% of his dropbacks. His career high before this season was 7.6% (2023), and his career mark is just 6.2%. That's quite a jump, albeit in only two games, and it's indicative of a poor supporting cast, as the Chiefs' passing offense is suffering from a combination of receivers not getting open and an average offensive line, which has a 36.9% pressure rate allowed, 16th in the NFL.

Certainly, it's fair to believe Mahomes and company will figure out ways to overcome their issues, but the offense isn't the Chiefs' only problem. Kansas City's pass rush has been mediocre, and perhaps the biggest issue facing the Chiefs going forward is their formidable remaining schedule.

My model projects the Chiefs' schedule as the sixth-hardest the rest of the way, including home games against Baltimore and Detroit, without Rice, as well as a trip to Buffalo later in the season. Mahomes is magical, and there are maybe only two other quarterbacks in the game I'd trust as much to deliver with a lack of weapons, but make no mistake: This 0-2 hole isn't going to be easy to climb out of.

The Chiefs shouldn't panic ... yet. What NFL Projection Model says about KC, other 0-2 teams