After knocking off the defending conference champs, Houston remains in the thick of the Big 12 race. Christian Petersen / Getty Images

When the 12-team College Football Playoff was created, its architects touted how expansion would have dozens of teams in the race entering November.

Nine weeks into the college football season, what we have learned about the CFP is that almost half the teams that began the season ranked in the top 15 won't be in it, but Cincinnati and Virginia just might.

And as tenuous as things feel for Texas right now, the Longhorns are still in far better shape than three other hyped preseason contenders.

Throw LSU on the pile with Penn State and Clemson as the most disappointing teams in the country. The Nittany Lions (3-4, 0-4 Big Ten) and Clemson's Tigers (3-4, 2-3 ACC) started the season in the top five and might not get bowl eligible.

The record is better for Brian Kelly's Tigers (5-3, 2-3 SEC), but it's getting just as bleak in Baton Rouge. LSU started the season ranked ninth in the AP Top 25 with the fourth-year coach bragging about the program's offseason NIL spending spree.

On Saturday night in Death Valley, it was LSU's playoff hopes that perished at the hands of Texas A&M in a 49-25 loss.

"Our fans are disappointed like any fan base would be. It stops with the head coach, so that responsibility falls with me," Kelly told reporters after the game.

LSU is still looking for its first CFP appearance under Kelly. Meanwhile, Kelly's old defensive coordinator, Mike Elko, might have the SEC's most likely Playoff team in his second season at Texas A&M.

The No. 3 Aggies (8-0, 5-0) head into an off week with three SEC games remaining, two against ranked teams, but both of those opponents finished Saturday's games without their starting quarterbacks.

No. 15 Missouri (6-2, 2-2), which hosts A&M in two weeks, lost a 17-10 heartbreaker at No. 10 Vanderbilt that came with an even greater cost. Beau Pribula injured his left ankle in the third quarter and coach Eli Drinkwitz said he expected the quarterback to be out long-term.

No. 22 Texas (6-2, 3-1), which is at A&M on the Friday after Thanksgiving, made a miraculous comeback at Mississippi State to avoid also saying goodbye to its CFP hopes before Halloween, but Arch Manning didn't play in overtime after taking a hard hit.

The road seems to have opened up for Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed and company. Same goes for No. 8 Ole Miss.

In one of two SEC games matching one-loss Playoff hopefuls, the Rebels (7-1, 4-1) beat No. 13 Oklahoma (6-2, 2-2) 34-26. The SEC has never been more competitive top to bottom, but Lane Kiffin's team finishes with South Carolina, Florida and Mississippi State in conference.

If 10-2 is indeed the magic number for Playoff inclusion out of the SEC, the Rebels appear to be in great shape. Ole Miss is sitting at 86 percent odds to make the CFP, according to Mock's projections.

As for the preseason No. 1 Longhorns, nothing about consecutive road overtime victories against Kentucky and Ole Miss suggests they are going to go on a Playoff run. Especially with Vanderbilt and No. 5 Georgia up next.

The Commodores (7-1, 3-1) roll into Austin next week looking to deal a knockout blow to Texas. Mock's projections still see Vandy as a long shot to reach the CFP (23 percent), but the Commodores do not want to hear it.

"Championship teams go through games like this," quarterback Diego Pavia said after Vandy's worst offensive game of the season.

The Big 12 didn't do its own preseason media poll this season because the conference feared the expectations were putting teams picked to finish down the table at a disadvantage.

Of course, the prediction machines cannot be stopped.

Informal preseason rankings had Cincinnati and Houston pegged to finish in the bottom four coming off losing seasons. BYU, which lost its starting quarterback in July, was outside the top five.

As usual, none of that matters in the Big 12.

A clear foursome has emerged at the top of the conference heading into the final month. No. 11 BYU (8-0) and No. 21 Cincinnati (7-1) sit in first place at 5-0, and No. 14 Texas Tech (7-1) and Houston (7-1) are right behind them at 4-1.

The Red Raiders (53 percent) are still the only Big 12 team with odds to reach the CFP above 25 percent, but BYU is the team that most controls how the conference race will play out.

The Cougars go to Texas Tech on Nov. 8 and are at Cincinnati on Nov. 22. Last year, an 8-0 start by BYU was followed by a 2-2 finish that kept it out of the Big 12 title game and the CFP.

Houston, which went 4-8 last year, upset defending Big 12 champion Arizona State 24-16 on Saturday. The Cougars are starting to feel like last year's Sun Devils, who really didn't emerge as a serious contender until a late surge.

Second-year coach Willie Fritz and Houston have an accommodating final month with West Virginia, UCF, TCU and Baylor. Only the Horned Frogs are above .500 in the league.

There are currently seven ACC teams with zero or one conference loss.

No. 7 Georgia Tech (8-0, 5-0) and No. 16 Virginia (7-1, 4-0), at the top of the standings, do not play each other. Neither has to play No. 9 Miami (6-1, 2-1), either.

The Hurricanes are still the most likely ACC team to make the CFP at 79 percent, according to Mock's projections, but they are going to need a fair amount of help to reach the conference title game.

Virginia did it again Saturday, keeping North Carolina's potential winning 2-point conversion out of the end zone by inches for an OT victory. Virginia has won its last four games by a total of 14 points, including three overtime games.

Much like Houston has emerged as a surprising contender in the Big 12, Pitt (6-2, 4-1) is suddenly positioned to be a real factor in the CFP race down the stretch.

The Panthers have won four straight since switching to freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel, averaging 41 points per game.

The Panthers play at Stanford next week and then finish the season with a nonconference game versus No. 12 Notre Dame, at Georgia Tech and home for Miami. Not only does Pitt have a chance to play spoiler -- a role it has historically relished -- but the Panthers can still dream of making a miraculous run to the CFP.

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