Long-range weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable, and current climate signals offer little guidance, but it appears Colorado's ski resorts may be in for a winter much like last season.

Many saw below-average snowfall for the season.

OpenSnow meteorologist Sam Collentine is guessing this winter will be similar based on a key data factor that influences Colorado weather: surface-water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phenomena known as El Niño and La Niña can influence whether storm systems originating in the Pacific favor the northern or southern U.S.

El Niño occurs when those ocean water temperatures are above average. La Niña happens when they are cooler than average. Currently, they are in the "neutral" range, and Collentine said that is "very similar" to last year.

"We had a monster storm cycle right around Thanksgiving," Collentine said in an interview. "We were at record snowpack, especially around the central mountains. Areas around Crested Butte, Aspen and Marble saw upwards of 60 inches in about 48 hours. We were at record pace in early December, but then we were high and dry for five to six weeks. We really didn't see any snowfall for an extended amount of time.

"If we didn't have that (early season) storm, it probably would have been a historically low year," Collentine added. "In February and March, we had a few storms, but in the April-May timeframe, there weren't any of those big spring storms. It ended up being a pretty below average winter."

The long-range Colorado forecast for December through February, issued by the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service, is calling for near-normal temperatures in the northern Colorado mountains and a 33% to 40% chance of above-average temperatures in the southern mountains. The forecast also says there are "equal chances" of precipitation being above or below normal.

And, even in years when the El Niño or La Niña effect is significant -- which is not expected to occur this winter -- it can be an unreliable gauge because Colorado is situated between the prevailing northern and southern storm tracks.

"We're in that middle ground where we can do well off either pattern, but we don't do really well off either pattern, if that makes sense," Collentine said. "What's great about Colorado is that we have high elevation and we do well off a variety of storm tracks. With elevation, the snow will come, it will stay cold, and the skiing stays great."

Collentine said meteorologists will be watching to see where "stubborn" high pressure ridges set up over the west coast.

"The biggest thing we're looking at is where that ridge pattern is going to set up, and how that will affect the overall pattern for Colorado," Collentine said. "Is it going to set up to block Colorado for much of the winter, like it did last year? Or are we going to get into that middle area, where we get storms from the southwest but also sneaky storms from the northwest?"

There is one thing Collentine is sure about.

"I can tell you with 100% certainty that we will have snow this year," he said. "Skiing will be good. You just have to pick the right days."

Many Colorado ski resorts had below-average snowfall last winter. Is a repeat in the offing?