Football touches a lot of people. I was thinking about this while watching Baker Mayfield driving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers down the field Monday night for a game-winning touchdown for the second consecutive week.

Dave Canales and Liam Coen were obviously hooting and hollering, as Mayfield pretty much paid for his former Bucs coordinators' houses in Charlotte and Jacksonville, respectively. Browns fans were crying, again, as they pretty much packed Mayfield's moving trucks out of Cleveland to make way for Deshaun Watson, while Carolina Panthers fans were confused as always, because, oh yeah, he slipped through their fingers, too. Sean McVay was probably telling people how he saved Mayfield's career in those five weeks that the quarterback was with the Los Angeles Rams.

Everybody else watching was just smiling. You can take various rankings with a ton of salt, but there is no arguing Mayfield is a top-five entertaining quarterback.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are one of seven 2-0 ATS teams, and we're going to roll with them for a third straight week. Last week wasn't bad, but we deserved better with the Jacksonville Jaguars' and Denver Broncos' last-minute losses. We're close to a breakthrough -- good or bad, lol.

This number has moved a couple of points, so the Bills are the obvious play. The Dolphins, as we predicted, did show some pride last week, but their secondary, coaching mistakes and Tua Tagovailoa ultimately did them in. While Tua is still completing a high rate of his passes (fourth in the NFL at 73 percent), he's missed badly on the incompletions. A career-high 40 percent of his incompletions have been overthrown, underthrown or wide (28th). The Dolphins already played the team-meeting card last week, and you have to wonder if Mike McDaniel will be back in San Francisco as an adviser come November.

The pick: Bills

Forget the teams. Take the over (44.5). These are two of the five worst teams allowing explosive plays (passes of 20-plus yards, runs of 10-plus), which is especially surprising with the Steelers, who are the worst at 18.3 percent. Pittsburgh is having trouble blocking for Aaron Rodgers and shouldn't be favored on the road ... but the Patriots' close win over the Dolphins means nothing.

The pick: Steelers

I was a Daniel Jones guy just a year ago, remember ... I saw the potential, I did ... before I totally jumped ship and was eaten by sharks. I mean, the Colts are the first team in the Super Bowl era not to punt in their first two games. Jones was really bad (and inaccurate) for the Giants on third downs last year. The Colts have not only boosted his confidence but also have largely avoided the third-down problem as well: Half of Jones' first-down pass attempts have resulted in new first downs (the league average is 27 percent). He can't keep that up; he just can't. Plus, the Titans will finally get their ground game going.

The pick: Titans

The Falcons shocked the Vikings last week behind a rejuvenated pass rush. While I am not buying they will keep that up, they might this week, given the Panthers' starting center (Austin Corbett) and right guard (Robert Hunt) are on IR. I don't know how the Panthers and lil' Bryce Young came back and managed to cover for us last week, and have no idea how they will do it again and cover the six here.

The pick: Panthers

The Buccaneers are coming off an emotional win on a short week, but their defense should be fine in a home opener against Tyrod Taylor, Breece Hall and company. On offense, despite the possibility of missing three starting offensive linemen, Mayfield and running back Bucky Irving might get by thanks to a bad Jets run defense.

The pick: Buccaneers

We all have blind spots. One of mine is I love this Texans defense, which plays with an edge and violence that I miss in this softer NFL. The unit couldn't make a stop against the Buccaneers on Monday to bail out its offense and bad (again) offensive line. But it will here, against a still-mediocre Trevor Lawrence and a banged-up Brian Thomas Jr.

The pick: Texans

What a QB matchup. I like Jake Browning more than I like Carson Wentz, but I love the Vikings' defense over the Bengals' defense. Aaron Jones is out, which means it's all you can eat for running back Jordan Mason.

The pick: Vikings

The worst thing about the tush push? It's made the Eagles really boring. They have only three pass plays of 10 yards or more, eight fewer than the next-worst team. They are 2-0, facing a team looking for revenge from that playoff loss. But Jalen Hurts just wins, and he'll do so here by four or more points, hitting DeVonta Smith a couple of times against the only defense yet to allow a 30-plus-yard completion. That's called reverse analytics.

The pick: Eagles

Tom Brady won't be in the Raiders' coaching booth for this one. How crazy is it that the NFL deleted its tweet with video of Brady in the booth after all the uproar? Jayden Daniels will likely miss this one with a sprained knee, and the spread quickly went down a field goal. That's OK. Marcus Mariota will be fine against this defense, which has a bad secondary and is coming off a short week after a tough game against the Chargers.

Ashton Jeanty, meanwhile, has gone from a can't-miss draft pick to having a total of minus-3 yards rushing before contact and being taken off the field because of his bad pass blocking. The Raiders didn't run the ball once on seven red zone plays last week, while the Commanders rank 11th in yards after contact per rush allowed (2.5).

The pick: Commanders

There is no reason to jump off the Packers. They could have a letdown and still chase down Joe Flacco. And their run defense is allowing 2.3 yards per carry. The Browns' defense has also been very tough. It just ran out of gas last week, giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter to the Ravens. Ditto here.

The pick: Packers

After NFC West bullies Arizona and San Francisco got their licks in on the Saints, it's the Seahawks' turn. Sam Darnold will enjoy his turn against a team with no pass rush. Seattle's defense, meanwhile, leads the NFL with a 49.4 pressure rate, extremely impressive when you consider that the only team blitzing less often is the Bengals.

The pick: Seahawks

For all the fawning over Justin Herbert on TV last week, the Chargers scored only 20 points against Maxx Crosby and a bunch of hard-trying guys. And I get it -- broadcasters hit town Wednesday and watch Herbert in practice, and it's breathtaking. It really is. The Broncos' defense, meanwhile, has been reading its own press clippings (as if people still read) and was very underwhelming last week. That ends here. Plus, the Broncos' offensive line will give Bo Nix time to make enough plays.

The pick: Broncos

If the Seahawks hadn't played the 49ers in the opener, the entire NFC West would be undefeated. The division should send the NFC South a fruit bouquet or something. Mac Jones might get another start here, as the win last week buys Brock Purdy and his purple toe another week -- but Purdy was back at practice Wednesday in a limited capacity. I was all set to pick the upset here, but there is no value with this line, and there has been an injury wildfire through the Cardinals' secondary.

The pick: 49ers

The Cowboys actually played for a 64-yard field goal attempt to send the game into overtime last week, and it paid off. They didn't cover the spread, at least, and they won't again here -- as they lose to Caleb Williams, who was actually better last week and goes against a Cowboys defense that misses Micah Parsons terribly. Don't let the 1-1 record fool you.

The pick: Bears

I don't know about you, but I am pulling for these kids, Travis and Taylor. For all the talk of Kelce being washed up -- and he did have that terrible, game-deciding bobble-turned-interception against the Eagles -- he has actually been getting open, if you're watching the tape. Only three defenses have allowed more tight end targets than the Giants (20) -- but New York ranks among the top 10 in yards per attempt allowed (5.3) on those targets. The Chiefs are 0-2, but, for all the hand-wringing, could very well be 2-0 (against two very good teams) without their two top wide receivers.

The pick: Chiefs

The Ravens are averaging 40.5 points in their first two games, and Lamar Jackson ripped the Lions two years ago for 393 total yards and four touchdowns. Detroit was foaming at the mouth last week against former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and blew the doors off the Bears. That's going to be hard to replicate, especially when some offensive line issues resurface here.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): We're still licking our wounds after almost giving you two last week with the Giants and Jaguars, but we do like the Broncos at +135.

NFL Week 3 picks against the spread: Baker Mayfield and the Bucs keep rolling