Patrick Mahomes is turning back the clock with his fantasy scoring production. Jamie Squire / Getty Images

Patrick Mahomes had muted expectations during the fantasy football draft season. Every major fantasy gaming platform ranked the Chiefs' franchise quarterback at or around QB6. Fantasy managers didn't mind drafting him as a good return-on-investment candidate, but few thought they would get old-school Mahomes.

Mahomes has rewarded those managers who drafted him with what could be the best season of his career. He currently leads all QBs in fantasy points per game (24.71) and is on a four-game streak with 26 or more fantasy points -- only the third time in his career that Mahomes has achieved such a streak. In the other two seasons, Mahomes finished the season as the No. 1 fantasy QB.

This year, he's had most of this success despite a receiving corps depleted by injuries and the six-game suspension of Rashee Rice. Now that Rice has returned -- in a big way -- is Mahomes on track to finish the 2025 campaign as the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback? Based on how he's produced fantasy points this season, it's quite possible.

Let's examine how Mahomes has returned to his dominant scoring ways, starting with his season-long FPPG marks and where they rank among quarterbacks.

Now, let's break this down into two sections, starting with Weeks 1-3, then Weeks 4-7.

The passing numbers represent the most notable difference between these splits. Mahomes ranked 21st in pass FPPG and 32nd in short pass FPPG in Weeks 1-3 but spiked up to a No. 3 ranking in both categories in Weeks 4-7. Xavier Worthy's return from injury in Week 4 explains some of the improvement, as does Kelce stepping up his performance after a relatively subpar first three weeks. Still, the biggest key to Week 7 and future success may be the return of Rice.

In his signature 2023 season, Rice led all wide receivers in yards after catch on short passes and was second in YAC per reception at that depth. Rice led the Chiefs in red zone and inside-the-10 targets and receptions that season. He also led or was tied for the team lead in touchdowns in those categories.

Kansas City fully utilized his skills in Rice's first game back. He was tied for the team lead in short pass yards and posted an incredible 23.2 points on short passes. That's the fourth-highest single-game total for Rice in that category. He also led the team in red zone points with 15.7, the highest single-game red zone point total in Rice's career.

Since Mahomes has posted 21+ FPPG over a full season on two occasions, he can replicate his Weeks 4-7 pass FPPG pace for the rest of the year and maybe improve upon it if Rice continues to produce anywhere near his Week 7 pace.

Mahomes had been incredibly consistent in fantasy rushing scoring prior to this season. He averaged between 2.4 and 2.9 rush FPPG in every season from 2018-24, sans the 2022 season when he posted a 3.5 FPPG mark.

His 7.0 rush FPPG pace this season is double his former season-high in this category. Mahomes posted a very high mark in this area in both season segments, so it isn't just a matter of a single game spiking his numbers.

Mahomes is posting most of his ground points on scrambles (5.2 FPPG), but he has also tallied points on planned rushes (1.8 FPPG).

The latter figure is what really stands out. Mahomes has never posted more than 0.4 FPPG on planned rushes in a full season, and that high-water mark was in 2018. From 2019-24, Mahomes averaged only 0.03 FPPG on planned rushes and had only 15 planned rush plays in that six-season span.

Mahomes has only three planned rushes this year, but he has scored touchdowns on two of them. These scores occurred on read option plays in Week 5 and Week 6. The defenders did not seem to think Mahomes would keep the ball in both instances.

After seeing film of Mahomes' easy rushing TDs, defenses will likely change their read option reactions and instead take an opportunity to get a clean, hard hit on Mahomes if he decides to keep the ball. Thus, head coach Andy Reid may shelf the read option play, especially since he can now use Rice on tap jet sweeps or back shoulder fades near the goal line (each of which resulted in a touchdown against the Raiders).

That leaves the scramble plays. Mahomes averaged between 2.6 and 3.7 FPPG on scramble plays from 2019 to 2024. The jump to 5.2 FPPG this year may be a matter of adjusting to coverage.

The Chiefs have faced the sixth-highest percentage of man coverage this season. The best way to stop a scrambling quarterback in man coverage is to assign a spy to him. Since defenses aren't expecting Mahomes to keep the ball on option plays, they may also not be assigning a QB spy. Perhaps Reid noticed and coached Mahomes to take scramble opportunities more often.

Defenses can adjust to an increase in Mahomes' scrambling, but with the return of Rice, any additional attention paid to keeping Mahomes' rushing prowess in check will cause coverage weaknesses. I think defenses will choose coverage over spying, so look for Mahomes to keep posting solid ground totals.

The core of Mahomes' case to "keep it up" rests on continuing the No. 1 QB scoring pace, but some potential schedule impediments could hinder him.

Travis Kelce has six unfavorable coverage matchups and zero favorable coverage matchups the rest of this fantasy season. But whatever coverage obstacles Kelce faces could be compensated for by Worthy, who has four favorable direct cornerback coverage matchups and zero unfavorable ones.

The Chiefs' vertical pass coverage schedule is less than ideal. Kansas City has three unfavorable vertical coverage matchups and only one favorable matchup. But that may not matter since the season-long numbers show that Mahomes doesn't need much vertical production to post elite fantasy point totals.

The biggest encumbrance for Mahomes may be the Chiefs' rush defense schedule. Reid loves to pass the ball, but he won't hesitate to go after a favorable rush defense matchup. Kansas City has four of them from Weeks 9-16.

The offset here is that Mahomes currently ranks fifth in pass FPPG on red zone plays. Add Rice's elite skill set in the red zone, and even if the Chiefs run the ball to get close to the end zone in favorable matchups, they will still ask Mahomes to close out drives through the air quite often.

So, is Mahomes going to continue his No. 1 QB scoring pace?

The path is there, with Rice rejoining the passing game and Mahomes taking everything he can with his legs. Every schedule obstacle has a powerful offset, so the roadblocks should be manageable.

Kansas City's veteran quarterback has a clear path to the third 400-point season of his career. Given the current state of the quarterback position, Mahomes ought to have his third No. 1 fantasy QB ranking at season's end.

With Rashee Rice back, can Patrick Mahomes finish as fantasy football's No. 1 quarterback?