No, I'm not pointing the finger at Arch Manning, DJ Lagway, Clemson or Notre Dame.

I'm pointing at myself. Forget the spread, I went 4-5 picking straight-up winners last week and am now 17-10 for the season.

Thankfully, I hit my third straight upset special thanks to Cal's win over previously unbeaten Minnesota. But I'm still looking to connect on my first stat-stuffer of the season. I'm 0-for-9.

Let's dive into what I hope is a Week 4 loaded with more wins for me.

Arizona State ranked 33rd nationally in opponent passing efficiency last year and -- with four secondary starters returning -- was expected to be among the best at defending the pass in 2025. But the defending Big 12 champions rank 83rd in that same stat through their first three games and face Baylor's Sawyer Robertson (356.7 passing yards per game, second nationally) on the road this week. Robertson (350-plus passing yards, three TDs) outduels Sam Leavitt (250-plus yards, two TDs), and the Bears cover the 2.5-point spread at home in a one-score game.

Jonah Coleman didn't have the kind of game he wanted the last time Washington played in the Apple Cup. He ran for 75 yards, and the Huskies lost a heartbreaker to the Cougars 24-19. Washington State, meanwhile, has given up 188 rushing yards to Idaho and 163 to North Texas thus far. Coleman, third nationally with 144 rushing yards per game, runs for 180-plus and two touchdowns, and the Huskies get revenge by covering the 19.5-point spread.

Tennessee's Chris Brazzell lit up Georgia last week with six catches for 177 yards and three touchdowns. Normally, I'd stay away from betting on a receiver to put together back-to-back monster performances. But Tennessee's opponent this week, UAB, just got torched by Akron at home. Brazzell catches seven passes for 180-plus yards and two-plus scores, and Tennessee takes out its frustrations following a loss to Georgia by covering the 39.5-point spread.

The only FBS team with a winning record that either Texas Tech or Utah has faced to this point is Wyoming, which fell to 2-1 after the Utes turned a 3-0 halftime lead into a 31-6 victory in Laramie last weekend. Elusive Utah quarterback Devon Dampier has played turnover-free football to this point. Odds are he'll finally cough it up at least once against Texas Tech. But I also think he'll make enough plays (300-plus yards of total offense, two TDs) and control the clock to lead his team to a two-point win.

Jackson Arnold has been efficient thus far in wins over Baylor, Ball State and South Alabama. He hasn't turned it over yet. But here's why I'm going with the Sooners: Oklahoma is minus-5 in turnover margin and still has the No. 1 scoring defense in the SEC. Arnold's return to Norman will be emotional. I expect him to play well (250-plus yards of offense, two TDs), but the Sooners' defense finally pounces on turnovers (two) and prevails in a four-point victory.

Lane Kiffin said QB Austin Simmons will be back in the starting lineup this week. Whoever is running the Ole Miss offense needs to play well because the defense is giving up 5.7 yards per play, next-to-last in the SEC. Tulane's Jake Retzlaff will get his on the ground (120-plus rushing yards, two TDs), but the Rebels will make it 14 in a row in this series (the Wave's last win was in 1988). A late Kewan Lacy touchdown run will be the difference in a seven-point game.

Billy Napier is back on the hot seat, but he is right about one thing: If not for a few too many self-inflicted wounds, Florida might be 3-0 instead of 1-2. That said, the Hurricanes dominated last year's meeting in Gainesville and have looked really good at the line of scrimmage through three games in 2025. Carson Beck (200-plus total yards, two TDs) won't light up Florida like Cam Ward (385 yards, three TDs) did last year. But he doesn't need to. Miami's balanced attack puts up more than 20 points (Florida's defense hasn't given up more than that in a game yet), and the Canes cover the spread.

The Illini have the only win over a Power 4 opponent this season between these two teams -- at Duke two weeks ago -- but are the underdog for a reason. Somehow, a veteran offensive line still isn't doing a good enough job protecting quarterback Luke Altmyer. On the other hand, Indiana's O-line will have its hands full with Illinois linebacker Gabe Jacas (3.5 sacks in three games). But the Hoosiers will get to the quarterback more often, and Fernando Mendoza (250-plus total yards, two TDs) will make more plays than Altmyer (200-plus total yards, one TD) to help IU cover the spread.

Nebraska's Dylan Raiola ranks 17th nationally in passing efficiency through three weeks. His counterpart, Bryce Underwood, ranks 82nd with only two touchdown passes thus far and a 57.5 percent completion rate. The Cornhuskers, meanwhile, rank first in the Big Ten in passing defense (though two of the games have been against Akron and Houston Baptist). Raiola (250-plus total yards, two TDs) outperforms Underwood (200-plus yards, one TD), and Nebraska improves to 4-0 for the first time since 2016.

Once again, thank you for your submissions. Kudos to these guys.

Ian: "Vanderbilt beats South Carolina, Tulane beats Duke, Texas A&M beats Notre Dame. All by 10-plus."

Hunter S.: "Haynes King runs for 150 plus with three total touchdowns as Georgia Tech upsets Clemson 24-21."

Sam: "Stanford over BC due to travel."

David: "Darian Mensah throws for less than 240 yards, gets outgained by Jake Retzlaff, and Tulane beats Duke 27-17"

These guys missed the mark.

Burt G: "Tennessee blows out Georgia. Let's say by 20 points."

Chad M.: "Billy Napier buys himself another week of job security as the Gators chomp down on LSU, handing Brian Kelly a fresh dose of misery and reigniting the Bayou Buzz about his future. Florida wins by 10."

Connor B: "USF blows out Miami, Byrum Brown goes for over 350 total yards, and Carson Beck turns the ball over three times."

The good: I predicted that Garrett Nussmeier (220 yards, one TD) and LSU would beat Florida. I said Beck would shine and Miami would rush for more than 200 yards and beat USF convincingly. I said Nate Frazier would run well and Georgia would win in Knoxville. That all happened.

The bad: I also had many, many misses. I predicted Darian Mensah would throw for three touchdowns and 400-plus yards -- to lead all FBS quarterbacks in Week 3 -- and Duke would pull off the road upset at Tulane. Mensah threw for 313 yards and three touchdowns (and one interception), and Tulane won 34-27. Jacksonville State's Cam Cook (120 yards, 0 TDs) didn't lead all FBS rushers with 200-plus yards, and his Gamecocks did not pull off the road upset at Georgia Southern. Eli Holstein did not throw the clinching touchdown in a Pitt win at West Virginia. The Mountaineers rallied to beat Pitt in overtime.

Just missed: Bryant Wesco was a hero for Clemson at Georgia Tech (seven catches, 126 yards, one TD), but he didn't lead all FBS receivers in yards, and the Tigers lost in Atlanta on a 55-yard field goal. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price combined for 162 rushing yards and three touchdowns, but Marcel Reed got the final word in a 41-40 Texas A&M win in South Bend.

College football Week 4 oddly specific predictions: Sawyer Robertson lights up Arizona State