Nevertheless, the Analysis Acknowledges That There Is Uncertainty About the Magnitude of the Actual Impact, Since the Administration Has Not Published Monthly Visa Issuance Data Since July

Oxford Economics has reduced its forecast for net migration to the United States (legal immigration minus unauthorized emigration) in response to a slowdown in legal migration and the expected effects of the H-1B visa fee increase. Less immigration implies slower labor force growth and, therefore, a tighter labor market, which in turn would moderate the rise in the unemployment rate in the coming years.

The report "New visa fees cloud the immigration outlook" by Oxford Economics, prepared by Michael Pearce, examines the consequences of the new U.S. immigration policy. The study indicates that the arrival of legal immigrants could average around 775,000 people per year, representing an annual reduction of about 140,000 individuals compared with the organization's previous estimates. Adding unauthorized departures, the adjusted total net migration could be around 400,000 people per year -- well below the recent pace of 1.1 to 1.2 million annually.

These revisions imply that, in the medium to long term, the U.S. population could be about 566,000 people below previous projections, and the labor force could shrink by around 350,000 people relative to September estimates.

The Oxford Economics research notes that, with such limited labor force growth, future economic performance will be increasingly conditioned by the level of productivity the U.S. economy is able to maintain. In other words, with little demographic momentum, the key will be how much each additional worker can produce.

The change in the H-1B fee

One of the most significant changes analyzed in the study is the introduction of a one-time fee of $100,000 for initial H-1B visa applications. This fee, which must be paid by the employer, is an order of magnitude higher than the fees previously in effect. Those who already hold H-1B visas are not required to pay it.

The H-1B program initially grants up to 65,000 visas per year, plus 20,000 additional ones for U.S. master's degree graduates. Since demand for these visas typically far exceeds supply (for example, there were more than 340,000 valid applications for fiscal year 2025), they are usually allocated by lottery.

The study points out that the $100,000 fee is especially burdensome for entry- or mid-level positions (except in very high-paying fields such as medicine or law), which could suppress demand for new professionals under this category. In addition, the government proposes modifying the lottery system to favor workers with higher wage levels, which would tend to encourage mid- and high-level hiring at the expense of entry-level positions.

These changes could reduce the number of new H-1B petitions below the permitted cap, leading to a net contraction in this type of visa. It is particularly relevant that nearly 70% of current beneficiaries work in computing or technology fields, suggesting a direct impact on that sector.

The study also notes that around half of H-1B visas are granted to individuals already in the U.S., many of them transitioning from student visas. In turn, many beneficiaries can support their spouses with associated work permits. Therefore, if the appeal for foreign students declines, this could create a ripple effect on the H-1B program and on legal migration overall.

The inflow of foreign students slows

The report warns that a slowdown in the inflow of foreign students is already being observed. Their numbers have been growing at a much slower pace during the year studied, and some student permits show a reduction of around 7% compared with the previous year. Part of this is due to the U.S. administration having temporarily suspended the issuance of student visas at one point, later resuming processing under stricter rules (for example, requiring disclosure of social media accounts).

This trend is concerning, the report says, because students on visas often have the opportunity to work temporarily after graduation (for example, through the Optional Practical Training, or OPT, program, with additional extensions for STEM fields). A sustained decline in student numbers would affect legal migration and, consequently, the entry of new workers into the labor market.

Nevertheless, the analysis acknowledges that there is uncertainty about the magnitude of the actual impact, since the administration has not published monthly visa issuance data since July (as of the report's date), and some indicators -- such as work authorization permits -- already show a trend toward deceleration.

Employment, Productivity, Immigration: Effects of the H-1B Visa Fee Hike - Funds Society