During the first week of October, three major U.S. government agencies released information that creates a dilemma for many American travelers. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported the lowest number of Southwest border apprehensions in 55 years. However, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recently confirmed widespread flight delays linked to staffing shortages made worse by the ongoing government shutdown. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also issued new COVID-19 vaccine guidance in preparation for what experts warn could be another severe winter illness season.

This information shows a split reality: the U.S. government says the border is running more efficiently than in past years, which could lighten the load at official ports of entry -- but despite these improvements, reports from the FAA and CDC show that domestic air travel is likely to remain unstable. With air travel still under pressure, travelers are beginning to question its safety, reliability, and the length of time it will take for conditions to improve.

Border Patrol Reports Lowest Apprehensions In Over 50 Years

On October 7, the DHS and CBP reported in a news release that Border Patrol recorded 237,565 apprehensions along the Southwest border during the fiscal year 2025 -- the lowest number since 1970. According to the agency, this number is 87% lower than the average of the past four fiscal years.

According to CBP, apprehensions are "the physical control or temporary detainment of a person who is not lawfully in the U.S., which may or may not result in an arrest."

CBP data shows that from FY 2021 to FY 2024, the average number of apprehensions was 1.86 million.

U.S. Border Patrol Apprehensions Along The Southwest Border Between 2021 And 2025:

FY21

1,662,167

FY22

2,214,652

FY23

2,063,692

FY24

1,577,319

FY25

237,565

The agency also noted that about 72% of FY 2025 apprehensions occurred during the first 111 days of the fiscal year, before the current administration took office. The remaining 27% happened over the following 254 days, suggesting that most of the year's encounters took place early in the reporting period.

"We have had the most secure border in American history, and our end-of-year numbers prove it. We have shattered multiple records this year, and once again, we have broken a new record with the lowest number of Southwest border apprehensions in 55 years," said Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem.

A 2024 report from the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) lists several possible reasons for the decline in apprehensions, which began in FY 2023, including the Biden administration's disincentivization of irregular border crossings and renewed enforcement measures in neighboring countries such as Mexico.

The drop in apprehensions could allow DHS to move more staff and technology to ports of entry, improving screening times while airports roll out CLEAR and TSA biometric e-gates ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup travel surge. Unfortunately, travelers may not get to experience these improvements, as flight and security delays tied to the government shutdown continue to disrupt travel across the country.

The Government Shutdown Has Worsened Airport Delays

The ongoing federal government shutdown has placed a new strain on the U.S. air travel system. TSA officers and air traffic controllers are required to work without pay during the shutdown, but many worry about what will happen to their livelihoods if it continues. As a result, security checkpoints and air traffic control towers are operating on skeleton crews as staff call in sick to find other ways to make money in the meantime.

Not only have these staffing shortages led to longer screening times, but they've also caused closures and delays at several airports. According to an ABC News report, Hollywood Burbank Airport was forced to close its air traffic control tower for six hours due to a lack of staff.

"We work evening shifts. We work midnight shifts. We have single parents, and when you're not even able to afford the childcare, those are going to be the very difficult decisions that are made," President of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, Nick Daniels, told ABC News.

Other air traffic control facilities experiencing staff shortages include those in:

* Atlanta

* Boston

* Chicago

* Dallas

* Houston

* Las Vegas

* Nashville

* Newark

Last week, American, Southwest, and United Airlines experienced the highest number of flight disruptions in a single day. Today, there were over 7,000 delays and almost 1,000 cancellations within, into, or out of the United States, according to FlightAware data. If the shutdown continues, travelers can expect more flight disruptions as the winter travel season approaches.

The CDC Warns Winter Illnesses Could Disrupt Travel Plans

Public health experts are warning that the colder months could lead to another rise in respiratory illnesses, including COVID-19, influenza, and RSV. More specifically, CDC surveillance data shows that COVID-19 infections have declined across most states since a brief peak in late summer, but its National Wastewater Surveillance System continues to detect elevated levels of the virus in several states.

Based on historical patterns, respiratory virus activity typically increases in late fall and winter, coinciding with heavier travel periods and increased indoor gatherings. With COVID-19 and flu infections on the rise, the already-strained travel industry is bound to be affected. A tough winter virus season will likely mean more workers calling out sick. In fact, CDC data from 2024 to 2025 shows health-related absences are highest from November through February.

An earlier study by the CDC outlining the 2017-2018 influenza season tells the same story:

"During the 2017-18 influenza season, absenteeism increased sharply in November and peaked in January, at a level significantly higher than the average during the previous five seasons."

On October 6, the CDC released updated guidance ahead of the winter season. The agency recommends the 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine for older adults, people with preexisting medical conditions, and those at higher risk of complications.

"We need to get [vaccinated] every single year, and this is because flu and COVID mutate so quickly that we need to remind our immune systems of how to find that virus," epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina told PBS NewsHour.

In addition to getting vaccinated, travelers should be sure to arrive early for their flights in case of illness-related staffing or service delays.

U.S. Travel Remains Fragile Amid Coordination Gaps

Even as CBP's recent gains have sped up border processing and potentially freed up resources, the rest of the air travel network remains under strain from shutdown-related disruptions and long-standing imbalances that have exposed the system's fragility.

For example, the FAA has acknowledged that its chronic shortage of air traffic controllers has forced multiple regional control centers to reduce capacity. According to Reuters, this shortage has persisted for more than a decade, yet the FAA is still 3,500 air traffic controllers short. While travelers may not have noticed this problem before, the recent shutdown has amplified just how dire the situation is. In an interview with MSNBC's Morning Joe, veteran air traffic controller Jonathan Stewart described the effect of staffing shortages on other controllers, saying, "You want to do the right thing, but you can't because you have three people, and you need 14."

On the other hand, other coordination failures have been more visible. NPR reported that during a Senate Commerce Committee hearing on the January crash involving an Army Black Hawk helicopter and an American Airlines regional jet, officials revealed that the hotline connecting the Pentagon's Army Heliport and the tower at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport had been unplugged since March 2022. While it has not been confirmed that this disconnected line was the direct cause of the crash, the loss of communication in one of the nation's most sensitive airspaces likely made coordination harder during an already high-risk situation.

"We were not aware, but we became aware after that event, and now that we became aware of that event, we're insisting upon that line to be fixed before we resume any operations out of the Pentagon," said Franklin J. McIntosh, the FAA's deputy chief operating officer.

Lastly, the FAA has experienced several outages of its Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) system, which helps pilots detect safety hazards on flight routes. An outage in January 2023 disrupted over 11,000 flights, resulting in the nation's first ground stop since 2001, Reuters reported. After the 2023 outage, the FAA said it would discontinue the current equipment by mid-2025. On September 30, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) announced in a press release that the new NOTAM systems had been distributed to early stakeholders and that the full integration would be complete by Spring 2026. However, outages as recently as February and March 2025 make it clear that the upgrade was long overdue.

Airport staffing shortages, tech outages, and breakdowns in communication keep revealing how tightly each part of the system depends on the others. Even as CBP reports improvements in border apprehensions, inconsistencies across the FAA, TSA, CBP, and CDC leave travelers vulnerable -- especially when a government shutdown constrains staffing and the looming winter illness surge pushes absence rates higher.

U.S. Government Agencies Create Strategic Dilemma For Travelers As Border Improvements Are Hindered By Domestic Delays